Posts tagged steve phillips
The 2020 Presidential Primary: Enduring Truths

By Steve Phillips

While much has changed in American politics and culture over the past few years, there are certain fundamental realities that will shape the 2020 presidential primary election.These enduring truths will have to be navigated by all the candidates and will go a long way towards determining who emerges from the primaries and caucuses as the Democratic nominee.

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Note About the General Election

By Steve Phillips

Democrats have a growing mathematical and structural advantage in presidential general election contests. This may come as a surprise to many people who follow the tenor and tone of some political coverage that proceeds from the assumption that the odds favor Trump being re-elected (presuming he runs again, which is not a given). The math, however, does not bear that out. Simply stated, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2020 should also win the presidential election, especially if he or she is running against Trump.

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What Really Happened in 2016: Math, Not Myths

By Steve Phillips - Preface to 2nd Edition, Brown Is the New White

In trying to make sense of the 2016 election outcome, many people are buying into a myth about what happened, and they are ignoring the underlying math that explains what really happened.  The six charts in this Appendix illustrate - with facts, not fantasy - why Democrats lost the election.  They did not lose because huge numbers of Obama voters defected to Trump (as the myth would have it).  They lost because many African Americans did not vote at all and because large numbers of Obama voters defected to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (what I call the "Johnstein voters.”).  What the data shows is that the path back to power requires re-inspiring Black voters and re-engaging the progressives who drifted to third and fourth parties.

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